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January 20, 2015 - Friday's "Relief Rally"

| January 20, 2015
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Stocks experienced another rollercoaster week, pummeled by a dismal global growth forecast and missed earnings reports. However, markets ended a four-day losing streak on Friday with a "relief rally" as energy prices rebounded slightly.[1] For the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.26%, the Dow fell 1.27%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.48%.[2]

The World Bank underscored investors' concerns about the global economy by slashing its global growth forecast for 2015 and 2016. Citing disappointing growth in Europe and concerns about some emerging markets, the development organization cut its predicted global economic growth rate to 3.0% from 3.4% in June.[3] Though U.S. growth remains strong, slowing demand overseas may hurt U.S. firms.

December holiday sales reports arrived, and the news wasn't very jolly, showing that overall retail sales dropped 0.9%. Cheaper gas, earlier shopping, and significant discounts all contributed to the drop, and retailers have chosen to call the season a win. The National Retail Federation says that overall holiday spending rose 4.0%, making it the best season since 2011. Investors were less enthusiastic about the data, which could indicate weakness in consumer spending.[4]

Earnings season shifted into high gear last week, bringing total S&P 500 company reports to 37. So far, the news isn't great. Financial companies are the first large group to report in, and although there are some individual success stories, the Major Banks sector (which includes companies like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup) was dragging, with earnings down 13.7% since the same time last year. However, outside the Finance sector, the picture is brighter, with total earnings up 17.4% so far on higher revenues.[5] Though it's still early in the season, S&P Capital IQ predicts that overall earnings for the S&P 500 increased 6.5% in the fourth quarter.[6] Though the U.S. demand picture appears to be strengthening, external factors like oil prices and the dollar's strength relative to other currencies is likely to significantly affect company performance this year.

Does January's rocky start bode ill for the rest of 2015? Probably not. Right now, Wall Street is preoccupied with the murkiness of recent data. Macro issues like oil prices, the dollar's strength, central bank moves, and global growth forecasts are overriding individual company data, which makes it hard to pick winners and losers. Fundamental trends within the U.S. economy haven't changed: U.S. firms are hiring, Americans are more confident about their prospects, and many sectors of the economy are showing improvement. Markets were closed on Monday, but the week ahead is filled with more earnings reports as well as Tuesday's State of the Union address by President Obama.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts
Thursday: Jobless Claims, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday: Existing Home Sales

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the DJCBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

HEADLINES:

NY Post Twitter feed hacked, traders respond. Investors were shocked when the New York post tweeted Friday that the Federal Reserve was holding an emergency meeting to set interest rates. Though the paper quickly regained control of the Twitter account and deleted offending tweets, some traders may have responded to the news. Lessons? Don't believe everything you read.[7]

Swiss franc soars after 1.20 euro peg dropped. The central bank of Switzerland abandoned a 3-year-old currency agreement by dropping the floor on the Swiss franc Thursday, allowing it to float freely against the euro. Traders responded by rushing for the euro exits, buying Swiss francs and pushing the currency 30% higher against the euro.[8]

U.S. import prices post record drop in December. The cost of U.S. imports fell by the largest amount since 2008 as petroleum costs continued to plunge. Import prices fell by 2.5% in December, dropping 5.5% for all of 2014. Weak import inflation may help stave off Fed rate hikes.[9]

U.S. foreclosures down 64% from 2010 peak. The number of foreclosed U.S. homes fell again in November, bringing monthly foreclosures down 64% since the peak in September 2010. Though foreclosure activity is falling, analysts believe it won't reach normal levels for at least two years as distressed loans continue to move through the system.[10]


These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.


Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

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  1. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102344504
  2. http://goo.gl/nR7tsc
  3. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102331556
  4. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/01/14/retail-sales-december/21714031/
  5. http://www.zacks.com/commentary/37417/banks-provide-shaky-start-to-earnings-season
  6. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102334709
  7. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-16/stocks-pop-and-drop-after-nypost-fed-emergency-meeting-twitter-hack
  8. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102340182
  9. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102336601
  10. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102334558
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